Thought of the Week

Leadership at the River Bend


Forecasting Supply….if we could only get it right!  I was speaking with a new found friend last month at a conference on the East Coast and the subject of forecasting came up.  I always jokingly tell people my “golden rule'” in supply chain goes like this.  “Don’t ever buy too much and don’t ever run out!!…..and the difference is only ONE !!  But it is so true!  If only we could get there, the savings in waste would be off the charts.  Forecasting in the aftersales part of the automotive industry is one of the most difficult areas.  All I know is that, every forecast is going to be wrong!!  We either buy too much or not enough.  Lets say our overall accuracy in forecasting was 65%.  (choose whatever number works for you).  What if we improved on that forecasting accuracy by 5%?

We don’t need to get to 100% immediately, but lets get the party started!  The savings opportunity is exceptional!  So having said all that to my new found friend, he started to put his firm’s analytical expertise to the test!  Stay tuned, we will see what he finds on this mission.  In the meantime, “don’t buy too much and don’t run out!!!” Your customers are counting on you.


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